Supporters of the recent coup in Niger have initiated the recruitment of volunteers to counter any potential military intervention from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as reported by AP News.

This development emerged shortly after ECOWAS' declaration of activating a "standby force,"  ready to engage in an invasion of Niger to reinstate the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, according to Responsible Statecraft.

The feasibility of ECOWAS' declarations remains uncertain, especially considering Nigeria's prevailing domestic security concerns. Typically, Nigeria would be expected to lead any military intervention efforts.

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Adding complexity to the situation is the joint threat issued by Burkina Faso and Mali, both of which are presently governed by military juntas. They have expressed their intent to support Niger's coup leaders should the regional bloc proceed with invading the country.

Attention is fixed on the spontaneous ECOWAS summit scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Ghana, as this gathering holds the potential to provide a clearer insight into the possibility of an impending regional conflict.

What about the US presence in Niger? 

Currently, this situation has cast a spotlight on the extensive US military presence in the nation, prompting inquiries regarding the potential requirement for American forces to vacate a significant drone facility that holds substantial importance for alleged regional counter-terrorism endeavors.

Situated close to the modest northern metropolis of Agadez, this base serves as the central hub for launching a substantial portion of Washington's intelligence and surveillance missions across West Africa.

The operational capacity of the US' drone fleet in the region, which previously operated from this base, has been temporarily halted due to the junta's ruling to shut down Nigerien airspace following the coup.

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Origin of US presence 

The US presence in Niger dates back to 2002 when the George W. Bush administration was winding up its so-called “Global War on Terror.”

The construction of the Agadez base incurred an expenditure of $110 million by the United States. Additionally, the US has allocated security assistance exceeding $500 million to the nation since 2012.

A substantial portion of this assistance has been invested in training Nigerien officers and offering support in operations under the guise of eradicating terrorist factions that have established a foothold in the region over the past few years. At present, the country hosts a consistent contingent of approximately 1,100 American soldiers.

How did the US affect Niger? 

Journalist Nick Turse's research suggests that the US presence in Niger might have negatively impacted the country's security. Attacks have surged since US involvement, and several junta leaders received US military training, implying that US influence hasn't fostered respect for democracy among the Nigerien ranks, as per Responsible Statecraft. 

Significantly, ongoing security issues trace back to the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya, Niger's northern neighbor. The collapse of the Libyan state in 2011 led to arms proliferation and armed fighters in the region, creating instability, as outlined in a recent Council on Foreign Relations report. The presence of illicit weapons empowered jihadist groups, resulting in Sahel instability and subsequent military coups.

While US officials emphasize that the Pentagon won't depart Niger without a government request, the junta refrains from antagonizing the US, instead challenging France. Junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani targets France, annulling military agreements and demanding French forces' departure. France, retaining 1,500 troops in Niger, rejects junta-made decisions as illegitimate.

In what cases would the US leave Niger? 

What if ECOWAS' threats become a reality?

If ECOWAS' military threats materialize, numerous analysts contend that the US would probably be compelled to depart. Sarah Harrison from the International Crisis Group, speaking on an Arms Trade Forum panel, noted that a regional war resulting from an ECOWAS invasion would place the Defense Department in a precarious position.

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If an invasion occurs, Harrison posited that the US might have to withdraw due to protection concerns. The potential for a "Black Hawk Down"-like scenario, with its moral and political ramifications, makes the decision evident.

What if the Junta holds power?

Another circumstance that might compel US troops to exit, or at least diminish their involvement, is if the junta retains control. Sarah Harrison suggested that maintaining a presence would be challenging if the coup isn't reversed. Training and supporting Nigerian forces could become restricted. 

Considering these obstacles, certain analysts view the coup as a chance for American policymakers to pivot and experiment with novel strategies to enhance security and bolster state capacity in West Africa.